President Barack Obama is popular with women and residents who have lived in North Carolina less than 30 years.
Public Policy Polling showed Obama has a three-point lead (49 percent to 46 percent) on presumptive GOP candidate Mitt Romney, which PPP said has been the average spread in the Tar Heel State since Nov. 2012.
North Carolina has seen an increase in its population in the past decade, and PPP looked at the political leanings of longtime residents versus those who've lived here less than 30 years.
Longtime residents (>30 years) support Romney 54 percent to 31 percent, but short-timers (< 30 years) skew for Obama, 58 percent to 37 percent.
Those who've lived here for 10 years or less overwhelmingly support Obama, 66 percent to 27 percent.
There's also a gender gap, with women skewing toward Obama, 57 percent to 38 percent, and men pulling for Romney, 56 percent to 40 percent.
These breakdown are what are keeping the margins close in North Carolina, and part of the reason why both campaigns are spending a great deal of money here.
Read the full results of the poll here.